Jasons 2019 NFL picks 4-4 ATS, 3-2 Totals
Imagine if we told you the Minnesota Vikings were the fourth-best group from the NFL? Hey, do not look at us: Football Outsiders have Minnesota rated No. 4 in DVOA (No. 5 crime, No. 6 shield, No. 14 specific teams) heading into Week 7. Oh, and all that moaning over QB Kirk Cousins does not hold water. Hes No. 8 overall in death DVOA, three areas better than Aaron Rodgers. Numbers do not lie.
Speaking of statistics, the under-appreciated Vikings (4-2 SU and ATS) could have some gambling value as 1-point road faves for Sundays game against the Detroit Lions (2-2-1 SU, 4-1 ATS). However, these NFC North teams are profitable thus far. We may get more value from theunder now that the sum has moved from 44 to as large as 46 on the NFL likelihood board.
Lets be sure were on the right track by Taking a Look at the projections, before we break down our decisions:
FiveThirtyEight: Minnesota –two
Jeff Sagarin: Minnesota –5.99, 44.76 total
As we suspected. If you go with the team of Nate Silver, there is profit margin to work with for your spread, which can be normal to get the NFL game. Jeff Sagarins figures are more bullish on Minnesota; we are quoting his eigenvector disperse, but his recent propagate for your Vikes is –2.94, which gets us close to that 2-point margin we are searching for. Note that we are very close to the magic number 3 also.
Obviously, if were serious about investing, whenever theyre in our favor, we will need to jump on those opening lines. The Vikings opened at the press — but only in $58 a pop up, based on the consensus accounts that were expanded before the sharps gobbled them up. Small wager, margin.
That line proceed to the complete is quite interesting. Team scoring is down from 23.3 points a game annually to 22.4, along with theunder is 49-43 (53.3 percent) across the league, therefore auto-betting theover to your NFL picks doesnt hold water right today — unless youre convinced therell be some regression to the expression, possibly from the kicking game.
Additionally, the matchup on the floor things toward a lower scoring game. The Lions position No. 14 total in DVOA, but only No. 21 on crime in contrast to No. 12 on defense (and second on specific teams). Then you have all that running around the Vikings do.
When it comes to that total, 23, we are still looking at a little window between the projections and the odds. Let us follow the sharps, place Minnesota in our selections and as always, may the prolate spheroid be with you.
Free NFL Pick: Vikings –1 (–105) at 5Dimes