Belle’s Best Bets: Kentucky Derby Prop Bets

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there’s been a really clear advancement in how complicated wagers can be, and how you can almost bet on any type of impact on Derby day. We have moved far beyond just picking a winner or a second-place finisher and moved to head-to-head wagers, bets on racing fractions, length of victory, as well as stakes like how many Tweets President Donald Trump will make. Although I often find myself trying to rationalize and come up with quantifiable numbers to support my wager, who knows what’s going to occur after three Mint Julep’s and being down $300 before the real race even begins?
Here are just three of my favorite proposition wagers for your Kentucky Derby:
How many spans would be winner win by? Over 1.5 (-160), or Under 1.5 (+120)
The Kentucky Derby was decided by less than one length on 42 occasions. On the opposite conclusion, the Derby has been obtained by four lengths or more 23 times.
In this year’s run for the roses there appears to be a great deal of speed horses entered, or at least horses that tend to favor the front end. With a lot of vying for premature positioning, a possible rate duel might ensue upfront. If that’s true, then it tends to benefit horses which are sitting just off the rate, and gives a reasonable shot for a few of the heavy closers to operate down the frontrunners from the stretch.
The most likely case scenario for this wager to money would be for faster fractions upfront and also a bunched-up finish at the cord. In a field as competitive and closely matched as this one, there’s a great deal of value in choosing the underdog alternative for the margin of length success.
Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135)
The odds with this sure have changed since Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner in history. Since 2002 there were numerous near misses — six — with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I Will Have Another, and California Chrome.
Triple Crown winners tend to come in bunches with three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s. This tendency seems to be really be factored into the odds of this wager, and the recency bias of Justify capturing the bid last year.
With the Kentucky Derby field as wide open as it has been in years, and without a overwhelming favorite — money on an easy proposition bet this weekend and wager the”No.”
The Last Place Saddlecloth Number Will be? Odd (-200), or Even (+160)
This number appears to overvalue the simple fact that the longest shot on the board brings post 15. Even though there are just two 50-1 morning-line runners, the Japanese horse #15 Master Fencer will probably go off at higher odds than that in the call to the post.
Despite who performs or underperforms based on their likelihood, the most likely last-place finisher is a runner who records a DNF or has to pull up. This can often occur due to unforeseeable conditions and is something that you cannot handicap for. Assuming that the race has been run easily, five of the 10 runners in 20-1 odds or greater will be breaking from a gate with an saddlecloth number. In +160, that seems like a lot of value to choose a 50/50 proposition wager.
Fantastic luck this weekend, and enjoy the”most exciting two minutes in sport!”

Read more here: http://talismaninfo.com/?p=1952

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