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Belle’s Best Bets: Kentucky Derby Prop Bets

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there’s been a very clear evolution in how intricate wagers can be, and how you can almost bet on any kind of outcome on Derby day. We have really moved far beyond just picking a winner or a second-place finisher and moved to head-to-head wagers, bets on racing fractions, length of victory, as well as stakes like how many Tweets President Donald Trump will make. Although I often find myself trying to rationalize and think of quantifiable amounts to support my bet, who knows what’s going to happen after three Mint Julep’s and being down 300 before the actual race begins?
Here are three of my favorite proposal wagers for the Kentucky Derby:
How many spans will be winner win ? Over 1.5 (-160), or Beneath 1.5 (+120)
The Kentucky Derby has been decided by less than one span on 42 occasions. On the opposite end, the Derby was won by four lengths or more 23 times.
In this year’s run for the roses there appears to be a lot of speed horses entered, or at least horses that tend to favor the front end. With lots of vying for early positioning, a potential rate duel might appear upfront. If that is true, then it has a tendency to benefit horses which are sitting just off the speed, and gives a reasonable shot for some of the deep closers to run down the frontrunners in the stretch.
The most likely case scenario with this bet to money would be for faster fractions upfront and a bunched-up finish at the cord. In a field as competitive and closely matched as this one, there is a great deal of value in choosing the underdog alternative for the margin of length victory.
Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135)
The odds on this have changed as Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner in history. Since 2002 there have been numerous near misses — six — with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I’ll Have Another, along with California Chrome.
Triple Crown winners have a tendency to come in bunches together with three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s. This trend appears to be really be factored in to the likelihood of the bet, and the recency bias of Justify capturing the bidding this past year.
With the Kentucky Derby field as wide open as it has been in years, and with no overwhelming favorite — cash on an easy proposition bet this weekend and bet the”No.”
The Last Place Saddlecloth Number Will be? Odd (-200), or Even (+160)
This number appears to overvalue the fact that the longest shot on the board draws post 15. Although there are just two 50-1 morning-line runners, the Japanese horse #15 Master Fencer will likely go off at higher odds than that at the telephone to the article.
Despite who performs or underperforms based in their likelihood, the most likely last-place finisher is a runner who records a DNF or must pull up. This can often occur due to unforeseeable conditions and is something you cannot handicap for. Assuming that the race has been run smoothly, five of the 10 runners at 20-1 odds or greater will be breaking from a gate with an saddlecloth number. At +160, that appears to be a lot of value to choose a 50/50 proposition wager.
Fantastic luck this weekend, and revel in the”most exciting two minutes in sports!”

Read more here: http://talismaninfo.com/?p=1952

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