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Belle’s Best Bets: Kentucky Derby Prop Bets

If it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there’s been a very clear evolution in how intricate wagers could be, and how you can almost bet on any type of outcome on Derby day. We’ve really moved far beyond simply picking a winner or a second-place finisher and proceeded to head-to-head wagers, bets on racing fractions, length of success, as well as stakes like just how many Tweets President Donald Trump will create. Although I tend to find myself attempting to rationalize and come up with quantifiable numbers to support my wager, who knows what’s going to happen after three Mint Julep’s and being down $300 before the actual race begins?
Here are just three of my favorite proposal wagers for the Kentucky Derby:
How many lengths will be winner win ? Over 1.5 (-160), or Under 1.5 (+120)
The Kentucky Derby has been decided by less than one length on 42 events. On the opposite end, the Derby has been obtained by four lengths or more 23 times.
Within this year’s run for the roses there seems to be a lot of speed horses entered, or at least horses that tend to prefer the front end. With a lot of vying for premature positioning, a possible rate duel might appear upfront. If that is true, then it has a tendency to benefit horses that are sitting just off the rate, and provides a fair shot for a few of the deep closers to operate down the frontrunners in the stretch.
The most probable case scenario with this wager to money is for faster fractions upfront and a bunched-up finish at the cord. In a field as competitive and closely matched as this one, there’s a great deal of value in choosing the underdog option for the margin of length victory.
Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135)
The odds on this have changed as Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner ever. Since 2002 there were numerous near misses — six — with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I’ll Have Another, and California Chrome.
Triple Crown winners have a tendency to come in bunches together with three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s. This tendency seems to be actually be factored in to the odds of this bet, as well as the recency bias of Justify getting the bid last year.
With the Kentucky Derby area as wide open as it’s been in years, and without a overpowering favorite — cash on an easy proposition bet this weekend and bet the”No.”
The Last Place Saddlecloth Number Will be? Odd (-200), or Even (+160)
This number appears to overvalue the simple fact that the longest shot on the board brings post 15. Even though there are two 50-1 morning-line runners, the Japanese horse 15 Master Fencer will probably go off at higher odds than that in the call to the post.
Despite who plays or underperforms based in their likelihood, the probably last-place finisher is a runner who records that a DNF or must pull up. This can often happen due to unforeseeable circumstances and is something you cannot handicap for. Assuming that the race has been run smoothly, five of the 10 runners at 20-1 odds or greater will be breaking out of a gate having an saddlecloth number. In +160, that appears to be a lot of value to choose a 50/50 proposition wager.
Fantastic luck this weekend, and revel in the”most exciting two minutes in sport!”

Read more here: http://talismaninfo.com/?p=1952

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